Why will the AKP's votes be less than 30 percent in the elections?

Hayri Taşkan

There is less than a week to the local elections now in Turkey. Every person who follows Turkish politics knows that this time it is more than just a local election. Although there is no recall process in the Turkish Constitution, this time the local election has turned into something similar to a recall election.

Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan himself pushed very hard to make this happen as a part of his brinkmanship and polarization politics, which go way back to his very first appearances on the national stage. However, I think, this strategy will no longer help Erdoğan to win elections. Since the beginning of February I have argued that the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) will receive less than 30 percent in the elections and it will be not be the winner of an election for the first time since it was established. All my friends oppose me by stating how strong the AKP is and how the political spectrum lacks of a serious alternative to the AKP. Here are my main reasons to stand up for my argument.

1- Weak candidates in eastern Turkey: The AKP is one of the two main political parties in eastern Turkey. However, almost all of their candidates in eastern and southeastern Turkey, where most of the Kurds live, are too weak to win the election. The Peace and Democracy Party (BDP), which is the political wing of the terrorist Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), nominated its strongest politicians such as Ahmet Türk, who is running for mayor of Mardin. The BDP took it so seriously that Osman Baydemir, long-time successful major of Diyarbakır, is now a candidate for Şanlıurfa, the other most important city in the region. Proportionally speaking, the AKP always received more votes in the East than in western Turkey. However, because of the weak candidates, this time they will not get as many as they used to have.

2- Kurdish initiative: Let me make it clear first. I support the Kurdish initiative and think it should have been done decades ago. Despite my belief that the AKP could have done a better job, it was the right thing to do. However, some Turkish people do not think as I do. Some people believe that Erdoğan had a secret arrangement with PKK. Those people even use the fact of the AKP's weak candidates in eastern Turkey to support their claims and suggest that PKK will not make an attack until the presidential elections as their part of the bargain. They think Erdoğan gave too much to the PKK in order to secure his dream of becoming president. Although they are not high in number, you can see those people almost everywhere across the country. Turkish nationalism is rising again. The Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) is campaigning harder than it has since 1999 in a number of provinces. A line of provinces with strong nationalist tendencies, from Gümüşhane and Bayburt in the north and Adana and Mersin in the south, are regrouping. It is not a surprise that these are the provinces that are most close to the Kurdish-dominated areas. The AKP will lose some votes to the MHP in the election.

3- Corruption claims: Erdoğan chose the wrong way to deal with the accusations. He stormed the police forces and justice system and tried to sell the idea of those allegations a conspiracy against him. It seemed to work for the beginning but now it has just backfired. All the leaks on the Internet made some skeptical people believe the allegations. When the alleged wiretap featuring Erdoğan and his son was leaked on the Internet it was the only thing people spoke about for days. Leaks found their way into the public agenda and damaged Erdoğan's defense. I do not ignore the fact that some AKP supporters will never accept the claims even if Erdoğan himself acknowledges the corruption. The people I point to here are those undecided voters who are not ideologically blind. A part of them thinks that there is no alternative good enough to make them not vote for the AKP. And another part of them thinks that any alternative is good enough considering the alleged corruption.

4- Picking the wrong fight: I already mentioned Erdoğan's brinkmanship politics. For years he managed to form alliances based on this politics. This time, however, he picked a fight with the wrong people, not because they are too powerful but because they can reach and communicate with Erdoğan's base. The Hizmet movement, which also known as Gülen movement, has been the center of Erdoğan's attacks during the election campaigns. Fethullah Gülen, who is recognized as the leader of the movement has not been an exception. Erdoğan and his close circle insulted both Gülen and the people who follow his ideas with the harshest words possible. The movement was accused of so many things by Erdoğan that it would be too long for a blog piece to write all of them. Banks, businessmen, media outlets, private schools, student dorms, almost everything and everybody that is publicly affiliated with the movement have been targeted and tried to be torn apart by the state tools operated by Erdoğan's close circle. Not only were those attacks not capable to do as much damage as Erdoğan wanted but they also helped the movement to bond in order to protect themselves. What Erdoğan could not calculate, or did not give importance to, is that in contrast to the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP), the Gülen movement shares the same base with the AKP. Religious people are economically on the rise and have largely moved into the cities since after the 1980s. People in the movement have a lot in common with the people who have voted for the AKP for the past decade. They are friends, relatives and even family members. They can influence the AKP's base easier than any other social group in Turkey and the AKP's base knows them better than any other social group in Turkey. Erdoğan's choice to fight with the Gülen movement has made people reconsider whom they will vote for since this time the wellbeing of their family members is at stake.

Of course there are more reasons and some of the social groups mentioned above are overlapping. However, these are, I think, the most important reasons why the AKP will receive less than 30 percent of the votes for the first time in its history.

Published on Today's Zaman, 24 March 2014, Monday