Erdoğan resorts to varied strategies to win local elections

Cumali Önal

Turkey has left behind one of the most noteworthy elections in its history. The Recep Tayyip Erdoğan-led Justice and Development Party (AK Party) won a significant victory in the last local elections.

Erdoğan's success was attributable not only to the AK Party's performance in office, but also to the shortcomings of his rivals and Erdoğan's ability to keep his thumb on the pulse of voters. Erdoğan's election strategy has several highlights, which I will discuss below.

The "parallel state" strategy

Erdoğan had focused on "the deep state," "Ergenekon," "the failure of previous governments," and his "victim image" in previous election strategies. In contrast to the previous elections, this time he shifted to another discourse: an imaginary "parallel state." Specifically targeting the Hizmet movement --- which conducts interfaith dialogue activities and runs educational facilities in Turkey and more than 160 countries around the world -- Erdoğan claimed that the recently voiced corruption allegations were the product of prosecutors and police officers who are members of the movement.

The ‘foreign forces' rhetoric

Another major component of Erdoğan's strategy was the claim that "foreign forces" were behind the plot against his government. In claiming that some unnamed countries were trying to drag Turkey into instability, Erdoğan performed like a typical leader of a Middle Eastern country. Indeed, it is common in virtually all countries in the Middle East for a leader to argue that certain countries -- with Israel and the US being the usual suspects -- are targeting the country in an effort to secure and bolster the people's support. Erdoğan and his cabinet resorted to the same method and pumped out the claim that the voice recordings about the alleged corrupt practices of the government had been devised to destabilize Turkey by foreign forces and their local conspirators. Many people believe that Israel and the US are Turkey's real enemies and they are trying to divide the country.

End of political Islam?

Erdoğan, as the strongest representative of political Islam in the world, frequently referred to religious sources in his election campaigns. To this end, he frequently talked about Bediüzzaman Said Nursi, the founder of the Nur movement. In this way, he tried to defame Fethullah Gülen, the spiritual leader of the Hizmet movement, which can be defined as a modern incarnation of the Nur movement. However, his frequent use of slanderous and polarizing rhetoric, many believe, is spelling the end of political Islam.

CHP's legacy

The legacy of the pressure exerted by the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) on religion and religious groups in the 1930s and 1940s and the CHP's staunch advocacy of a strict concept of secularism further facilitated Erdoğan's success. Although many people could feel the signs of destabilization in a number of areas, including the economy, diplomacy, politics and daily life, they continued to lend support to the AK Party as they believed the CHP and the other opposition party, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), would not solve any of their problems.

The specter of coalitions

The apparent success of single-party governments for the country's governance, for example Adnan Menderes, Süleyman Demirel and Turgut Özal, and the failure of coalition governments made many people believe that the country will suffer from serious economic crises under coalition governments. Therefore, they were concerned that the fall of Erdoğan's government would take the country back to the dark days of the coalition eras.

Fears of economic chaos

The most important factor guiding Turkish voters' preferences was the partial stability attained in the economy with the AK Party at the helm of the country. The development of healthcare services and social welfare aid and the roads constructed across the country are perceived as one of the most important indicators of economic stability. Although radical improvements have not been achieved for the lower and middle classes of Turkish society, the fact that middle-aged and elderly people can still remember the economic traumas of the past is a facilitating factor for Erdoğan.

Is Turkish society pious?

The potential reaction of Turkish society to corruption and bribery allegations, lies and slander was another source of concern. Despite the documents and voice recordings showing that government members were implicated neck-deep in corruption and bribery -- which are forbidden in Islam -- and they had clearly meddled in the media, judiciary and business world, the majority of society tended to ignore these aspects, saying, "They steal, but they work." In addition, they chose to believe in Erdoğan's claims that there is a conspiracy against him, the voice recordings are doctored and there is a parallel state trying to overthrow his government.

Poor performance of religious communities and CSOs

Erdoğan was also successful in securing the support of many religious communities and civil society organizations (CSOs). He provided them with direct or indirect economic support and privileges. Since it had carefully avoided any funding from the government, the Hizmet movement managed to maintain its independence.

Silencing of the media

Control of the media constituted the most important component of Erdoğan's election strategy. Currently, Erdoğan controls some 30 national newspaper and TV channels through various methods and punishes dissident media groups through taxes and by withholding ads from public institutions. After the elections, it is said, Erdoğan will file official complaints against dissident newspapers and journalists to intimidate them.

Silencing of clerics and academics

Another tool in Erdoğan's repression toolbox was the silencing of academics at universities and clerics at the Religious Affairs Directorate. Academics at state universities refrain from making comments against the government, while academics at private universities fear that their universities might be punished if they make unfavorable comments about the government.

On the road to becoming one man

Erdoğan brought all the international agencies in the country under one roof and created an untouchable intelligence watchdog that is subordinated to himself. He further reshuffled the National Police Department to appoint pro-government police chiefs to top positions. And he subordinated the judiciary to the government. All these developments are seen as Erdoğan's efforts to turn Turkey into a Middle Eastern country.

Published on Sunday's Zaman, 06 April 2014, Sunday