How will the fake assassination attempt be conducted?

Emre Uslu

I recently argued that there might be fake assassination attempts targeting the leaders of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) in an effort to prevent the loss of votes.

As the elections near, AKP leader Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's language grows more and more pungent. His rhetoric paves the way not only for those seeking to foment turmoil and chaos in Turkey, but also for the groups that are willing to steer developments to promote the interests of the ruling party. The climate is becoming suitable for those who are eager to create a situation in which Erdoğan would be perceived as a victim and the Hizmet movement as being responsible for his victimization and by doing so, boost electoral support for Erdoğan's party. It is for this reason that pro-government media outlets started voicing potential attacks and assassination attempts against the prime minister and the AKP.

Fake assassination attempts are very fashionable in Middle Eastern dictatorships. For instance, in Egypt, there was a fake assassination attempt against Hosni Mubarak on Sept. 26, 1999, i.e., 22 days before a referendum.

The security analysts I consulted with list the following possibilities for such a fake assassination attempt:

First of all, the sub-contractor should facilitate the portrayal of Erdoğan and the AKP as victims and the Hizmet movement as the mastermind behind the attempt and, therefore, as a terrorist organization. This subcontractor should be readily available for use by intelligence units.

The security expert I consulted claimed an attack which was conducted last year in Ankara and which was striking not only in terms of its consequences but also with regards to its timing was performed by someone who was linked to intelligence units. This hair-raising claim further raised my suspicions.

According to police sources, an organization which was recently established in response to police operations in Greece against the Revolutionary People's Liberation Party/Front (DHKP/C) may attempt to assassinate politicians or other leading figures in Turkey. The DHKP/C has already stated it will stage similar acts.

According to information received by security forces: "A group of five or six DHKP/C militants -- Ş., H., İ., Y. and Ö., some of the group members -- will enter Turkey and these militants will disguise themselves as police officers and try to stage an armed or suicide attack against Erdoğan during a rally or ceremony in İstanbul."

Given the fact that Erdoğan reshuffled thousands of police officers and has been very aggressive against the Hizmet movement, pro-government media outlets will immediately stage a campaign to manipulate public perceptions ahead of the elections.

The second possibility is a more complicated attempt related to the settlement process. It is no secret that there are several members of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) who are discontented with the settlement process. Recently, it was reported that some 300 PKK militants were ready to stage attacks in urban areas. I think everyone knows the PKK is not solely the PKK. By using the “deep” PKK, fake attacks may be launched to make the public believe that the AKP has been victimized and to accuse the Hizmet movement of being connected to these attacks. You will remember that PKK leaders had openly targeted the Hizmet movement during the row between the AKP and the Hizmet movement.

Security analysts also draw attention to the legionnaires who are selected from Turkish expats in Europe, like Ömer Güney. The Iranian Revolutionary Guards or the Quds Force may organize such an attack. This analysis has firm standing. It is known that these organizations performed very sophisticated attacks in the 1990s in Turkey and later in Syria. In this respect, this is a possibility.

It wouldn't be a surprise for Erdoğan to use such fake assassinations and attacks as a pretext for a mass crackdown on the Hizmet movement, particularly given the fact that the judiciary has recently been subordinated to the ruling party. In such a mass operation against the Hizmet movement, the prosecutors and judges hand-picked by the justice minister thanks to a recent amendment to the law on the Supreme Board of Judges and Prosecutors (HSYK) would be very useful.

I had written about this before. It is the duty of police officers to prevent fake assassinations so as not to manipulate public opinion. I hope they abandon this project as their plans have been exposed.

Published on Today's Zaman, 05 March 2014, Wednesday

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