Erdoğan, Gül and Arınç: Parting of ways for the troika

Mümtazer Türköne

We had quickly become accustomed to a frequently repeated assertion immediately after the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) was established in 2001.

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan would make a harsh statement with the potential to trigger debate across the country, but Abdullah Gül would step in to make soothing remarks. Particularly when Erdoğan spoke off script, there was always a possibility he would make a gaffe. Erdoğan was also counterbalanced by Bülent Arınç. Arınç enjoyed prestige as a delicately poised politician who inspired confidence in the general public as well as those voters who nurtured suspicions about the AK Party's intentions. After becoming president, Gül couldn't adequately play that same role. Arınç, on the other hand, continued to enjoy respect as the wise man of the party. But his statements started to lose their impact in the face of Erdoğan's irresistible authority.

The stalemate that engulfs the AK Party today is the result of Erdoğan's personal decisions and policies. If the troika had been able to maintain its checks and balances system, as was the case in the past, the tension that was induced by Erdoğan's rage would not have emerged at all. It is known that the decisions that have put the AK Party in its current position are not endorsed by Gül and Arınç. Yet the actual situation created by these unapproved decisions has the potential to determine the future of these two politicians. Both are urged to comply with decisions they don't approve. Arınç continues to send soft and conciliatory messages whenever he has the opportunity to do so, but these messages are not as effective as they were in the past, given the fact that we are in the hottest moments of a war. This, however, does not apply to Gül. In several months, Gül's tenure as a president will end, and his future political career will be defined by what he does today. Gül is trying not to sever his ties with the AK Party's voter bank, which is following the footsteps of Erdoğan and, at the same time, he is trying to send sympathetic messages to the Average Joes. As Erdoğan grows harsher, this puts him off balance.

Gül obediently approved the bills that destroyed Turkey's hard-earned democratic achievements. His decision to quickly endorse the bill that subordinated the top judicial body, the Supreme Board of Judges and Prosecutors (HSYK), and accordingly, the entire judicial system, to the government was a critical one that undermined his image amid ongoing tension. His endorsement of the bill that introduced increased censorship on the Internet was another source of public disappointment with him. Today, he opposes the Twitter ban, and says that the law --which he endorsed-- under which the access to Twitter was blocked has no basis, but this does not help.

Gül can restore his independent position when he tries to follow a different policy in the war of rage waged by Erdoğan against the Gülen movement. Gül refuted two basic arguments advocated by Erdoğan. Erdoğan's first belief was that the graft and bribery investigations were actually an "international conspiracy" against his government. The pro-AK Party media outlets have been propagandizing that the graft investigations were part of a US- and Israel-backed ploy and they accused the Gülen movement of colluding with these foreign forces. Gül said that it is a sign of underdevelopment to seek refuge in such conspiracy theories. Second, despite the propaganda efforts by Erdoğan to defame the Gülen movement's internationally acclaimed schools, Gül lent support to these schools. These statements were considerably important in that they undermined Erdoğan's major belief.

Still, the gap created by Erdoğan is extremely wide. The president cannot fill it. Just as Arınç is losing his prestige in the eyes of the Gülen movement, Gül, too, is being driven to destruction by Erdoğan in this ruinous war. Erdoğan has no third option; he must either win or lose. But he cannot win. It seems that the breakup of this troika just after the elections will herald new movements in the political scene.

Published on Today's Zaman, 24 March 2014, Monday