Election 2014

Mümtazer Türköne

Every election brings with it its own unique balances and stories. And with these upcoming elections, we have seen unfold a series of stories that would challenge the most dramatic of action films. In some ways, it's like being addicted to a TV series; everyone goes to bed consumed by curiosity about what the next day will bring. It's almost as though we're watching a script for a TV series. In the morning, it never seems to disappoint; the same excitement that you would get from an action series starts up again. These are days when domestic disputes are no doubt on the wane; after all, the fights dominating the political arena surpass anything happening at home. Much less personal gossip is making the rounds right now, too; after all, politics in Turkey gives you more than any other source in the way of gossip these days.

Of course, another overwhelming characteristic of this election period is that it has essentially passed in a struggle between the ruling party -- which has employed state power -- and a large religious-civilian community. The Gülen movement is not a political movement; it is a very powerful civil society movement. In the face of the corruption investigation, the prime minister has used as his line of defense the tactic of declaring the Gülen group the enemy, which has wound up turning the election competition into a war waged against the Gülen group by a political party. Every time Erdoğan has been faced by a new scandal, he has reacted like a cat whose tail was stepped on, yelling “this is the Gülen group's doing!” Competition between a political party -- one that is using all the state power that comes with control -- and a well-respected and widespread social movement can be neither fair nor equal.

And to wit, the prime minister has overseen an unfair war, using the power of the media and state tools. While the Gülen movement fosters no pretentions of winning the elections, at the very least, the results from the elections are sure to show a drop in support for the ruling party. The run-up to these elections has destroyed all of the balances in the political spectrum; it has elicited completely new political alliances and balances. For the Republican People's Party (CHP) to have put forward Mansur Yavaş as candidate for mayor of Ankara -- Yavaş having previously been a Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) candidate -- was a very radical move as far as voters' habits are concerned. The CHP and the MHP are two parties more distant from each other than from the AK Party. But when Mansur Yavaş's candidacy suddenly turned the CHP into the election favorite in Ankara, what emerged was a change in voting habits. The new alliance between CHP and MHP voters created a new ability for transition between these parties.

Meanwhile, and to the contrary, Erdoğan has done everything in his power to polarize and sharpen politics. His political rhetoric is more full of anger, hostility and enmity than ever before. It should be pointed out that Erdoğan is not just the leader of a party involved in elections; he is also the prime minister leading the country. And his enmity-filled language is directly reflected onto the leadership of the country. In the wake of Dec. 17, around 10,000 police officers and chiefs were exiled from their positions. Their only crime was not listening to the illegal orders given by politicians.

Democracies that have become very polarized, and are drowning in demagoguery, are called “democracies which cannot be lead.” What Turkey has experienced with these elections is a democracy whose believability has been undermined, as the prime minister exploits the tools of leadership at his disposal. Today, the response to this question -- one that can asked even of those thinking of voting for the AK Party -- is one that reveals the most essential problem Turkey faces: How much does the prime minister really represent the 76 million people in this country? Who has declared that those not voting for him are the enemy? How much of the vote will he manage to pick up by turning portions of society into the enemy? How exactly will he plan on being prime minister to his enemies?

There is only one possible result we can come to at this point: Erdoğan cannot lead this country. This tableau is enough to trigger the mechanisms of democracy. The 2014 elections, more than just being local elections, will serve to allow for the state tools of democracy to bring things back to normal, in a country overwhelmed by crisis. No matter what the vote percentages wind up being, the politicians will wind up getting the message from voters that it is now time to emerge from the crisis.

Published on Today's Zaman, 29 March 2014, Saturday