Skullduggery and uncertainty

Amanda Paul

2014 will be a difficult year for Turkey. The present crisis is set to continue for the foreseeable future, possibly becoming even uglier as Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan faces the toughest challenge of his political career so far.

Democracy in Turkey is going down the drain. Since the corruption probe scandal began Turkey has entered a new and rather grim period, with new twists and turns coming daily. Erdoğan is working day and night to keep a lid on further corruption allegations, leaving no stone unturned -- he's even trying to make fundamental changes in the judicial system. The latest twist was a new round of police dismissals and reassignments that were carried out in the early hours of Tuesday. While those removed were accused by the government of “dirty plotting,” it is clearly a result of the growing feud between Erdoğan and his motley crew of allies, and Fethullah Gülen. Unfortunately, this fight is costing Turkey, impacting its economy and image in the world.

The battle between the Justice and Development Party (AKP) and the Gülen movement is set to continue, but what direction it will take remains to be seen. The rule of law and the judicial system are in the middle of this tug of war, being manipulated in a wholly undemocratic manner. With the Gülen movement set to continue to reveal further information on corruption and other AKP misdemeanors, for Erdoğan it would seem they are the new military and need to be crushed. Hence Erdoğan's favoring a retrial for hundreds of military officers convicted of plotting to overthrow the government after a senior adviser suggested the officers had been framed by the police and judiciary. He could try to discredit the Gülen movement by making the link to them.

Meanwhile, the AKP needs to shore up voter confidence ahead of the March local elections. With the party rupturing, this will not be easy. The clash with the Gülen movement will impact the election results. Further losses may come as a consequence of some good candidates being fielded by the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP), particularly in İstanbul and Ankara. Still, given the lack of a strong opposition, it seems the AKP could well remain the prevailing political actor in the new landscape, although it may be seriously downsized and weakened. Furthermore, if they do not make at least 40 percent, we may see a real shake-up in the party. In any event, the result will shape strategy and be a trail blaze for the presidential elections.

Beyond the domestic quagmire, the concept of Turkey being an island of stability and a democratic model in a volatile and unpredictable region has been blown out of the water. Turkey is an increasingly loose cannon, with traditional allies losing confidence in its leadership. Erdoğan's image has changed from that of a reformist and democrat to someone who has no respect for the rule of law; who is undoing and backtracking on reforms; and who has crippled the freedom of the media.

One cannot help but think about the role of the EU, and whether Turkey's membership talks could have helped prevent the current crisis if the EU had been fully engaged in the process rather than allowing negotiations to be unnecessarily derailed, which in turn allowed Ankara to run amok and left the EU with no leverage. The EU has not done what it could have to support democratic development in Turkey; by unnecessarily stalling Turkey's membership talks, it removed the very tools required to strengthen democracy.

On Jan. 21 Erdoğan will visit Brussels. During his New Year's speech he promised to boost EU reforms, yet recent developments show this is hardly genuine. Furthermore, Erdoğan and his government continue to tell the EU to mind its own business and not meddle in Turkey's domestic affairs. Despite the EU's lack of leverage, they need to keep their nose in the frame, not least to help support the efforts of civil society and other reform actors.

No one in the EU is interested in Erdoğan's skullduggery and talk of conspiracy theories. What they are interested in is having Turkey return to political and economic stability as soon as possible. The last thing the EU needs is further upheaval in its neighborhood.

Published on Today's Zaman, 07 January 2014, Tuesday