If gov't wins two big cities, it may go to early elections

Lale Kemal

It has now become clear that the government and its onetime ally, the Hizmet (Service) movement, inspired by the teachings of Islamic scholar Fethullah Gülen, have definitely parted ways as the former declared war against the latter which it blames for plotting a coup to undermine its governance ahead of local elections scheduled for March.

Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan claims that Gülen's followers had collaborated with what he calls “international dark circles” -- i.e., the US and Israel -- to plan a high-profile corruption and bribery investigation -- as though it is not real -- reaching his inner circle which became public on Dec. 17. A government draft bill is currently being debated in a parliamentary commission to change the structure of a top judiciary board with the aim of, in the words of Erdoğan, cleaning this board of the influence of the Hizmet movement, whose members are allegedly influential within the board. Yet the bill, if approved by Parliament, is intended to bring an end to the concept of the separation of powers by bringing the judiciary under the full control of the government.

In addition, Erdoğan responded to the graft investigation by removing over 3,000 policemen from their posts since Dec. 17. Erdoğan contradicting himself is, however, very obvious. On the one hand he claims that the graft investigation is the doing of the Hizmet movement and international circles, while on the other he has already forced two ministers alleged to have been involved in the bribery and corruption scandal to resign and sacked a third after he refused to resign, reshuffling his government. In addition, around 20 people, including the sons of two former Cabinet ministers, the general manager of a state-owned bank and an Iranian businessman, have been arrested on charges of corruption.

Hence, the prime minister admits that there has been in fact an act of corruption that took place involving his allies. Yet he blames others for allegedly making up the graft investigation as though it were not real.

What is real, however, is the fact that there has been an alleged serious network of individuals involved in graft abusing state powers. What is not real, in the meantime, are Erdoğan's allegations of the existence of international dark circles and their subcontractors who allegedly made up the graft conspiracy to undermine his 11-year rule.

As long as Erdoğan and his ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) are unable to prove their claims of the existence of a plot being made against the government through the graft investigation, it will continue to raise questions about its already-ruined credibility.

The government's credibility can only be restored if it stops preventing the judiciary from carrying out its investigation into the corruption and bribery scandal. It has to also stop pushing for an amendment to be made intended at bringing the judiciary board under the government's full control.

How the current row -- unprecedented in Turkish history in that former strong allies have turned into enemies -- between the government and the Hizmet movement, whose supporters have made it possible through their strong backing for the AK Party to stay in power for a long period of time, will end up is now easier to predict. Taking into consideration the fact that the AK Party is a single-party government having all the state powers in its hands and that Erdoğan publicly said he would finish off all those he claimed to be conspirators aiming to oust his government, the ruling party may emerge as the winner in its fight against the Hizmet movement.

The government has been engaged in a war of survival that signals that it will resort to all kinds of methods to win, regardless of whether it will mean losing the democratic gains ironically achieved earlier again under its governance.

If the AK Party is still predicted to emerge as the winner of the coming local elections -- even if it loses some votes -- this stems from the absence of a potential alternative to its rule, with the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) being a hopeless case in standing as a serious rival to this ruling party.

Yet, CHP leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu can be a game changer if he places all of his party's support behind his candidate, Mustafa Sarıgül, for the mayoral post of the İstanbul Metropolitan Municipality against the AK Party's Kadir Topbaş in the March local elections. Kılıçdaroğlu needs, among other things, to pour money into Sarıgül's campaign activities for the İstanbul mayoral post to increase his chance of winning the race.

If Kılıçdaroğlu is a smart man, he should realize that he will never be prime minister, at least in the next five years, and hence has to invest in Sarıgül more strongly to allow him to reach out to all İstanbulites. If the CHP wins with Sarıgül in İstanbul, perceived as a base for the AK Party and Erdoğan, who earlier served as the metropolitan mayor of this city before entering politics, this main opposition party will grab the opportunity to show people that the ruling party can be defeated. Hence, the CHP's credibility with people in İstanbul, Turkey's biggest city, will increase. It is also highly likely that Hizmet followers may vote for Sarıgül instead of Topbaş.

If the AK Party's candidates, meanwhile, win the metropolitan mayoral posts both in İstanbul and Ankara, the capital city, again, it is likely that Erdoğan may decide to hold early general elections instead of the planned 2015, next year, as his confidence in his party winning the legislative elections will grow. He may also be guaranteed to become Turkey's next president during the August presidential elections this year which the public will vote in for the first time.

Published on Today's Zaman, 17 January 2014, Friday