Turkish PM on uncertain footing as elections loom

Suzan Fraser, AP

After dominating Turkish politics for a decade, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is entering election season on uncertain footing - without the support of key groups that had powered his previous electoral wins and facing divisions within his own party.

Erdoğan, whom critics accuse of cutting an increasingly autocratic figure, faces municipal elections in March that are largely seen as a vote of confidence in his Islamic-based government. A poor result could weaken Erdoğan just as he seeks to shift into the presidency in an August vote while still maintaining enough influence in his party to choose his successor as prime minister in parliamentary elections expected next year.

A big setback could end his long pre-eminence over Turkish politics.

Turkey, a largely Muslim nation that straddles Europe and Asia, is a key US and NATO ally with a flourishing economy and stable democracy. Under Erdoğan's leadership, the country has increasingly been looking East, cultivating new relations in the Middle East and Asia and casting doubts on its long-standing aim of joining the European Union.

Erdoğan's Justice or Development Party, better known by its Turkish acronym AKP, has dominated parliament for the past decade and retains the support of a core religious and conservative base. It could see its majority shrink in elections as unhappy liberals and former allies look elsewhere, although none of the three opposition parties in parliament is likely to overturn that majority.

Erdoğan has fallen out with a moderate Islamic movement led by US-based cleric Fethullah Gülen, who is believed to have millions of followers in Turkey and had backed Erdoğan's party since it was formed in 2001.

The prime minister, who came to power in 2003, has also lost the support of many liberals, who once saw him as a reformist leader edging Turkey closer to EU membership. His international image also suffered a blow following a violent police crackdown on protests in May and June over government plans to build in a central Istanbul park.

Adding to Erdoğan's woes, divisions have even emerged inside the usually tight-knit AKP. Deputy Prime Minister Bulent Arinc, who founded AKP with Erdoğan, grumbled on state-run television last month about his treatment by Erdoğan and announced he was not running again. Another legislator resigned from the party rather than face ouster for insubordination after he criticized Erdoğan on Twitter.

"Erdoğan had lost the support of a majority of the liberal circles a long while ago, and now we are seeing political Islam breaking away too," said Cengiz Aktar, a professor of political science with the Istanbul Policy Center. "The local elections will deliver a clear message to the government."

A simmering rift with Gülen's movement came to a head recently after Erdoğan's government announced plans to close the private "cram schools" that prepare high school students for Turkey's highly competitive university entrance exam.

Erdoğan insists the measure is part of the government's educational reforms. But since about a quarter of the schools are run by the Gülen movement, many see the decision as a way to strip the group of a major source of income and influence.

The AKP-Gülen alliance began to crumble after the movement criticized the government's foreign policy over the past few years, including its deteriorating relations with Israel, as well as Erdoğan's uncompromising stance toward the domestic protests.



Analysts say Erdoğan has grown weary of the influence of the Gülen movement, whose followers are believed to have a strong foothold within Turkey's judiciary and police. Gülen supporters are thought to have instigated a series of trials against the country's military leaders that helped end the generals' hold on power.

Gülen's movement is a spiritual one and it is not expected to run its own candidates in the elections. However, many of its followers are likely to shift away from the AKP.



"The movement does not tell (followers) who to vote for," said Mustafa Yesil, who heads the Gülen-funded Writers and Journalists' Association. "But we could witness an emotional break (away from the AKP)."

Istanbul will be a major test for the ruling AKP in the March local election. The pro-secular, main opposition Republican People's Party, CHP, appears to have a strong mayoral candidate for Turkey's largest city.

Published on Today's Zaman, 09 December 2013, Monday