November 27, 2013

WSJ: Turkey's Dominant Political Coalition Shows Signs of Fraying*

Series of Initiatives by Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan Provoke Backlash Ahead of 2014 Elections

Intensifying rivalries between Turkey's prime minister and segments of his Islamist-rooted ruling party are threatening to fray the largely conservative coalition that has dominated the nation's politics for more than a decade, just as it prepares for elections next year.

Over the past month, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has launched initiatives that prompted a backlash from the Islamists, conservatives, nationalists and liberals who have powered his Justice and Development Party, or AKP, since it swept to power in a 2002 landslide.

Such strife before the March local elections—a litmus test of Mr. Erdogan's popularity ahead of his expected bid to become Turkey's first directly elected president next August—is unusual for the AKP alliance. Its discipline helped dislodge Turkey's military-backed, secularist establishment, which had ruled the country since it was established in 1923.

The rifts have emboldened anti-AKP segments of society. Antigovernment demonstrations in the summer that drew millions marked the most significant public challenge yet to Mr. Erdogan. But they have yet to boost the divided opposition or dent the government's popularity.

"Explicit criticism of Erdogan from inside the party has increased and surfaced in public for the first time in 11 years, which may have an impact on his performance in the presidential election," said Naz Masraff, a London-based analyst at Eurasia Group, a political and economic risk consultancy. "But it doesn't improve the prospects for opposition parties or undermine the power of AKP in the March local elections."

Mr. Erdogan's most contentious recent move was a campaign launched two weeks ago to shut down the nation's private college-preparatory schools. More than a quarter of these schools are associated with the loosely knit, world-wide religious movement known as Cemaat, or the congregation, and called Hizmet, or service, by its followers.

It is led by Fethullah Gulen, a reclusive, influential Muslim cleric from Turkey who lives in Pennsylvania.

The moderate Islamic movement is estimated to have at least a million followers including AKP lawmakers, prosecutors and police in Turkey. They have helped underpin the AKP's nearly 12 years in power.

Last year, Mr. Erdogan warned about the power of Turkey's judiciary, saying it had started to resemble "a state within the state." The remark was also seen as a suggestion that the Gulen congregation wields vast influence over the judiciary.

The prime minister's relations with the group cooled visibly since January 2012, when prosecutors sought to question a top confidante—spy chief Hakan Fidan. Mr. Erdogan moved swiftly to pass legislation making key bureaucrats off-limits to the judiciary.

The new move against preparatory schools is a sign Mr. Erdogan will act more decisively to curb Mr. Gulen's financial, political and public influence, analysts said.

The Gulen congregation has reacted sharply in editorials, including in Turkey's top-selling newspaper Zaman, which the movement owns. They warned the government risked losing the group's support if it pursued the school closures.

"If this initiative is implemented, there will be a serious emotional breakup between the members of the movement and the government," Cemal Usak, a follower of Mr. Gulen for four decades who occasionally speaks for the congregation, said Tuesday.

The movement said its schools provide a needed service for students underserved by the standard educational system. And it warned—along with some AKP critics of the move—that shutting them sets a dangerous precedent of government intrusion into private business.

Mr. Erdogan has stood firm, saying the proposals will level the playing field for all students and rejecting allegations they target Mr. Gulen's movement.

"The parties may not necessarily share the same views on prep schools but that doesn't mean there is a clash here," Mr. Erdogan's Press Adviser Lutfullah Goktas, said Wednesday. "It isn't like these issues haven't been talked about…You cannot govern a country if you try to implement what any group says to the letter."

But the tensions within the AKP coalition go beyond the clash with Mr. Gulen's supporters. Mr. Erdogan angered liberals and senior party leaders earlier this month when he moved to criminalize cohabitation between unmarried male and female university students.

The handling of the summer antigovernment protests also exposed divisions when Deputy Prime Minister Bulent Arinc apologized for a police crackdown as Mr. Erdogan praised security forces' "epic heroism."

Since winning a third and final term in June 2011, Mr. Erdogan has been the sole driver of government policies, playing down advice from officials and stifling dissent, political analysts and some AKP lawmakers said.

Last week, lawmaker Idris Bal was referred to a disciplinary commission in a bid to expel him from the AKP for his vocal opposition to shutting the prep schools.

"In their minds, a lawmaker has been elected to the post because of the good graces of AKP, and must therefore unconditionally support its policies," Mr. Bal said in an interview. "I disagree with this."

Some lawmakers and analysts said Mr. Erdogan's strident rule marks an effort to raise his profile before his widely expected candidacy for president. Two former presidents in the 1990s failed in a similar effort to rule from the largely ceremonial post and their parties imploded amid infighting.a fate some say could also threaten the AKP.

Yet Mr. Erdogan is forging ahead with his plans, banking on a resilient 50% support that is doubles the popularity of the main opposition Republican People's Party.

The premier's ratings have defied political gravity for two years despite nationwide anti-government protests, a decline in the growth of Turkey's $786 billion economy to 2.2% last year from 8.8% in 2011, and foreign-policy setbacks that have eroded Ankara's influence in the Middle East.

Still, Turkey's opposition parties haven't managed to seize on AKP's deepening rifts, underscoring the party's dominance of the political landscape.

Turkey's generals ousted four governments since 1960, including Mr. Erdogan's Islamist-minded predecessor in a 1997 coup that prompted Mr. Gulen to leave Turkey for the U.S.

The cleric continued to expand his network, receiving visits from top Turkish officials regularly in Pennsylvania, where he settled in 1999.

In a sign of the AKP's rising internal tensions, Mr. Gulen devoted his latest weekly sermon, published on an official website, to comparing the government's assertive policies with generals' behavior before coups.

Yet Mr. Erdogan appears unfazed and some AKP lawmakers said he may have simply written off Mr. Gulen's followers. The lawmakers said Mr. Erdogan estimates those followers at around 3% of the total electorate although the movement and pollsters said it could impact as much as 15% of the vote.

"Never forget this one thing, my brothers. The people understand us very well, they see what we are doing and know what we will do," Mr. Erdogan told AKP lawmakers in parliament on Tuesday, after discussing his government's track record in education. "We have no worries."

—Ayla Albayrak in Istanbul contributed to this article.

Published on The Wall Street Journal, 27 November 2013, Tuesday

*Editor’s note: Hizmet Movement Blog reaffirms its non-endorsement policy of the various viewpoints expressed throughout the articles that are solely shared for the convenience of the readers.

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