What Erdogan’s win means to Pakistan, Afghanistan

Naveed Ahmad

Turkey’s June 12 polls indicate that the country is moving towards two-party system with Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Adalet Ve Kalkinma Partisi (AKP) increasing its vote bank by 5 million since the last 2007 elections and opposition party Cumhuriyet Halk Partisi (CHP) emerging strong with additional 3.5 million votes.

The AKP has won unprecedented 50 percent votes and secured 326 seats in 550-member parliament. The opposition party, CHP, bagged 25.9 per cent votes and attained 135 seats.

Though the AKP enjoys convenient simple majority, it needs at least four members’ support to rewrite the constitution. “We will discuss the new constitution with opposition parties, civil society groups and academics. We will seek the broadest consensus,” said Erdogan in a speech soon after the election results were announced in Ankara.

The current Turkish constitution was written by military dictators in 1983 and last year’s referendum widely backed its rewriting.

The elections not only offer enormous hope for the fledging Turkish middle class but also the Muslim world, especially neighbouring Syria, Palestine, Pakistan and Afghanistan. Being a key Nato member, Turkey has used its influence in the two Muslim majority countries to the advantage of all stakeholders of regional peace and development.

Over years, the Erdogan government initiated practical steps to ease trouble in Afghanistan and find a political solution to end the quagmire resulting from the American policy failure of isolating Taliban from the al-Qaeda. Ankara has agreed to a Taliban representative office on its soil.

The Turkey’s ‘zero-trouble’ foreign policy, a brainchild of its Foreign Minister Professor Dr. Ahmet Davutoglu, adds to the European and American confidence in its efforts to lead political engagement of various stakeholders in the war-torn nation. Pakistan and Iran are also on board with full confidence in Ankara and Erdogan’s diplomatic team.

The presidents of Pakistan, Afghanistan and Turkey are scheduled to review the progress of their previous meetings during their September meet in Ankara. While shrinking American and European economies cannot sustain prolonged military presence aboard, a peaceful transition in volatile Afghanistan is the way to go.

Following an elaborate official visit of Afghan President Hamid Karzai along with Peace Council Chief Burhanuddin Rabbani, the pre-requisite cordiality and understanding awaits future Turkish initiatives to lead the process further with its Nato allies.

The AKP’s third term in office has implications for Pakistan’s society and economy as well. Amid soaring US pressure on the IMF-dependent country, Islamabad-Istanbul freight train, operating since August 2010, offers Pakistani exports cheaper and quicker access to Turkish and European markets. Following the signing of Pakistan-Iran gas pipeline deal in Istanbul, Tehran too is comfortable with Pakistan and Turkey increasing multilateral trade.

Against at least 45-day sea voyage of container-carrying ships to Istanbul port, the much cheaper freight train completes the journey in less than 10 days. Thanks to the initiative of Turkish President Abdullah Gul, the RCD-era connections stand revived. The Istanbul-Islamabad train is eventually visualised to carry passengers and promote tourism and cultural interaction.

The Erdogan government has ambitious targets for Pakistan-Turkey trade, which has recently touched merely $1 billion mark. Ankara hopes to boost trade with Islamabad to $5 billion in the next two years. Both nations are set to open respective bank branches to ease barriers in commerce and trade. Yet the Civil Aviation Authority has kept relations hostage to ill-intentions of its vested lobby.

While any emerging or old Gulf region airline can enjoy landing rights across Pakistan, the Turkish Airline is being consistently denied the same. Despite assurances from the highest level during Musharraf and Zardari eras, the world’s top airline has not been entertained. Only recently, Islamabad has promised landing rights to the Turkish Airline from Islamabad and Lahore in January 2012.

The AKP government has pushed for enhanced cultural and educational ties with the Pakistani people. A Turkish university is already working to construct a campus in Lahore after the remarkable popularity of Fethullah Gulen-inspired Pak-Turk schools.

The return of AKP, under its charismatic leader and a predominantly younger team, may prove catalytic in realising the ‘two countries, one nation’ dream for Pakistan and Turkey’s mutual prosperity and success.

(The writer is an investigative journalist and academic with a special focus on diplomacy, security and energy politics)

Published on The International News, 14 June 2011, Tuesday