Will the MHP stay above election threshold?

Mümtazer Türköne

Recent public polls show that the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) will receive 9 to 12 percent of the vote in the upcoming elections. Experts are concerned about the party's votes. The analysts I talked to say they are experiencing difficulty in gauging electoral support for the party. The MHP could be the major surprise of this election as it may fall below the election threshold. Based on the current outlook, I think the party will not be able to surpass the threshold.

MHP-style nationalism is one of the forms of nationalism that emerged in the modern age. It is sexist, moralist and traditionalist. What the party's militant supporters display resembles right-wing attitudes of authoritarianism. This style reduces morality to sexual abstinence. For this reason, the recent sex tapes of the party executives have enraged supporters, most of whom are keeping silent for now to see where this tape venture will end. The MHP supporters are confronted with their own moral values, as reports note there are more tapes. The website that broadcast the previous tapes is now threatening MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli, saying that others will be publicized on May 18.

The MHP chair and executives appear to have lost both control and their tempers. In the aftermath of the tape scandal, the MHP headquarters seems shattered. A shocking statement by Mehmet Ekici, a key figure in the MHP, where he implied gratitude toward the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) over its attitude regarding the scandal was effectively used in the election rallies by the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) leader. It seems that the MHP administration failed to develop a commonly agreed upon counterstrategy to deal with the problem. The only systematic reaction MHP leader Bahçeli expressed was to expand the boundaries of the battlefield against Fethullah Gülen. Previously, Bahçeli, in a written statement, argued that Gülen should suspend all activities he was supporting. He is currently making serious accusations and insults, equating Gülen with PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan. But the battle Bahçeli waged against Gülen does not make any sense at all. Commentators who usually have sound analyses of the MHP, like Avni Özgürel, note that this strategy seeks to attract the attention of the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) supporters in some Western cities. However, there is no such competition between the MHP and the CHP. In addition, the traditional MHP voters sincerely respect Fethullah Gülen. A huge number of MHP supporters endorse his activities, his mission and his ideals. The MHP supporters I know note that they do not approve of the MHP leader's approach. For this reason, it is really hard to argue that Bahçeli's war is seeking greater electoral support.

There is only one reasonable explanation for Bahçeli's bitter attitude. It is already evident that politics is also a matter of conspiracies and traps. He may be facing one such conspiracy. The MHP's aggressive stance vis-à-vis the Gülen movement helps the pro-Ergenekon figures alone. It may be argued that Ergenekon is blackmailing the MHP leader and forcing him to wage this war.

The MHP leader's fight is not an appropriate strategy for a party seeking greater electoral support. The MHP is currently contributing to the erosion of the base it was built upon. Support for the party is rapidly declining. The currently ambivalent supporters may abstain from voting for the MHP on election day. In this case, the MHP will tragically fall below the election threshold.

Published on Today's Zaman, 16 May 2011, Monday