Why is the MHP escalating its war on Fethullah Gülen?

Emre Uslu

Following the leak of videotapes of senior-level Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) officials, party leader Devlet Bahçeli told his constituents that tape-based politics was being coordinated by someone from “beyond the ocean.”

Since “beyond the ocean” is known in Turkish political literature to be a reference to Fethullah Gülen, Gülen responded to the MHP. Bahçeli had targeted the Gülen community before the disclosure of the videotapes as well. After the arrest of some journalists, Bahçeli stated that “the community should suspend its activities” in an appeal to Gülen. Even though Bahçeli was forced to backpedal upon public reactions it shows that the MHP leader had been targeting the Gülen community even before the videotapes emerged.

The war Bahçeli and the MHP have waged against the Gülen community is not directly related to the sex tapes featuring MHP officials. It is more a political campaign that is being carried out as part of a political project. For a while I have been saying the MHP has been encircled by the deep state. Under the direction of the deep state, the MHP has been fighting against the Gülen community particularly since December 2009 as a main strategy of the party. The MHP is not being inconsistent; the strategies of the deep state and the MHP’s targets go hand-in-hand.

What appears strange is that the MHP is continuing this war during a critical election period. MHP’s constituents and the Gülen community are not very different from each other. Both are movements that are supported by nationalist conservative groups of people. In fact, there is barely any pro-MHP family that hasn’t sent their child or children to a school or learning center owned by the Gülen community. It is for this reason that opposing the Gülen community is like suicide for the MHP.

We can tell that this opposition has nothing to do with the sex tapes because even before the tapes had been leaked Bahçeli lent support to journalist Ahmet Şık. So then what is Bahçeli aiming to do? There is only one reason why Bahçeli has launched a war against the Gülen community. The MHP, whose votes have increased in coastal areas, wants to capitalize on the anti-Gülen wave in coastal cities. Below you can find the fluctuating vote percentages of the MHP on a regional basis. For example, according to a study conducted by PollMark, support for MHP among its traditional constituents in places like Erzurum in central and eastern Anatolia have declined to around 4-5 percent. In contrast, MHP votes increased from 13 percent in March to 15 percent at present in the Aegean and from 11 percent to 12 percent in western Marmara. There also appears to be a one point increase in MHP votes in coastal parts of the western Black Sea. According to a survey conducted by the Eurasia Public Opinion Research Center, MHP has 16 percent of the vote in İzmir. In 2007, the MHP was only able to win 13 percent of the vote in İzmir.

All public opinion polls show a decline in support for the MHP among its traditional constituents in Central Anatolia. The increase in votes in coastal cities in contrast to the decrease in central Anatolia is being perceived as a development that will enable the MHP to pass the election threshold. But the increase in votes is also being attributed to neonationalist voters, who disagree with the changes in the Republican People’s Party (CHP) and are considering voting for the MHP in protest of the CHP.

Clearly the reason the MHP administration waged a war against the Gülen movement even before the video tapes were disclosed is because it realized this reality among CHP voters. The MHP wants to use the anti-Gülen mood in coastal cities to garner support. As such the MHP is both appealing to the emotion of anti-Gülen voters in the Aegean and also covering up scandal involving MHP politicians.

With this strategy the MHP is going to continue criticizing the community. That is because the issue is not about really discovering who recorded the images, it’s about maintaining the increase in MHP votes in coastal areas.

I asked Bekir Ağırdır, a partner of the research company KONDA, his opinion. Ağırdır said the MHP would not be able to pass the election threshold solely with the votes of its traditional constituents. He explained that CHP constituents in coastal areas who are displeased with the current state of the party may lend their votes to the MHP just this once, enabling the party to pass the election threshold. I suppose it will be easier for us to catch a ray of truth if we look at the discussion on the sex tapes of MHP officials from a perspective other than morality. From what we can tell, MHP leader Bahçeli is planning to benefit from the sex tapes. It makes a person want to say, “Oh politics, you are so omnipotent.”

Published on Today's Zaman, 11 May 2011, Wednesday