Poll: Public believes MHP sex tape quake work of ‘external forces'

Today's Zaman

The release of sex tapes involving some members of the opposition Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) has been coordinated by dark or external forces that are trying to reshape the administration of the opposition party ahead of or after the June 12 general elections, according to the findings of a newly released opinion poll.

The poll was conducted by the MetroPOLL Strategic and Social Research Center.

Ten top executives of the MHP have resigned from their posts in the party and withdrawn their candidacy for the post of deputy in the elections after the release of the tapes. Since the release of the first tape, many politicians and civilians have discussed who could be behind the tapes and what they could be aiming for with their release.

According to 20.6 percent of respondents in the MetroPOLL survey, external forces that do not want the MHP to enter Parliament are behind the release of the sex tapes. Another 18.7 percent said the tapes were released by anti-[Devlet] Bahçeli circles within the MHP. Bahçeli is the leader of the MHP. The MHP leader had refused to resign in the wake of the release of the tapes. More than 17 percent of respondents said the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) and its supporters may have released the tapes. Around 10 percent pointed to the Ergenekon terrorist organization and the deep state as the power that released the MHP's sex tapes. Only 5 percent said the Gülen movement, inspired by internationally-renowned Turkish scholar Fethullah Gülen, had a hand in the release of the sex tapes. More than 25 percent of respondents declined to comment.

In the wake of the video clips that surfaced involving senior members of the MHP having affairs with women, Bahçeli accused Gülen and his movement, saying those “beyond the [Atlantic] ocean” have a role in the emergence of the video clip scandals. However, the findings of the MetroPOLL survey suggest that respondents do not find the MHP leader's argument credible.

The MHP has recently been trying to cope with the release of sex videos involving its politicians. On May 21, MHP deputy chairmen Mehmet Ekici, Osman Çakır, Ümit Şafak and Ahmet Deniz Bölükbaşı, MHP Secretary-General Cihan Paçacı and MHP Presidency Council member Mehmet Taytak resigned from their positions and withdrew their candidacy for the post of deputy in the June elections. Earlier this month, four other MHP politicians -- Recai Yıldırım, Metin Çobanoğlu, Bülent Didinmez and İhsan Barutçu -- resigned from their posts after the release of video clips that showed them having sex with women.

Respondents also questioned participants about what they think about the motives behind the release of the MHP sex tapes. According to 41.1 percent, the main motive is to prevent the opposition party from entering Parliament after the election. Slightly more than 23 percent said the tapes are aimed to unseat the MHP leader. And 18.1 percent said the primary aim is to make a change in the MHP administration in order to strengthen the opposition party against the AK Party. More than 15 percent said they have no idea.

According to nearly 35 percent of respondents, the release of the sex tapes did not significantly change the MHP, while 28.3 percent believed it weakened the party against its rivals prior to the approaching general elections. More than 26 percent, however, believed that the tapes helped MHP members to join forces and strengthen their party before the elections. The survey showed that respondents have mixed reactions when asked about the success of the MHP leader to “manage the sex tape crisis.” While 40.1 percent said Bahçeli was unsuccessful in managing the crisis, 39.3 percent responded to the contrary. For 89.3 percent of respondents, the release of the sex tapes did not impact their voting preferences in the June elections.

The governing AK Party is expected to sweep at least 45 percent of the national vote on June 12 and form a single-party government for the third time, results of earlier opinion polls suggests. The main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) is expected to garner around 25 percent of the vote, while the MHP is expected to hardly pass the 10 percent election threshold to enter Parliament.

In response to a question over whether they approve of the release of sex tapes of MHP politicians, 90.7 percent said “no.” The figure was higher, reaching 94.7 percent, when asked if they approve of the release of tapes involving moments from people's private lives.

Another question in the survey concerned people's perception of remarks by CHP leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu who pledged to give autonomy to local governments during a speech in the predominantly Kurdish province of Hakkari earlier this month. While 8.5 percent of respondents said their voting preferences were impacted by the CHP leader's remarks, an overwhelming 86 percent said they did not think about voting for another political party after Kılıçdaroğlu's remarks.

The poll also questioned participants about their voting behavior. Asked which political party they would vote for in the June 12 general elections, 34.8 percent said they would vote for the AK Party. More than 23 percent said they would vote for the CHP, while 15.9 percent said they would cast their vote for the MHP. Nearly 6 percent voiced support for independent candidates supported by the pro-Kurdish Peace and Democracy Party (BDP).

The Felicity Party (SP) is likely to receive around 1.5 percent of the national vote while the Voice of the People Party (HAS Party) will receive 1.2 percent of the votes. The Grand Unity Party (BBP) is expected to receive 0.8 percent of the votes cast. All these numbers are likely to increase at the ballot box due to the distribution of ballots cast by undecided voters, which the survey shows to be more than 20 percent.

The poll was conducted between May 28 and 29 by telephone on a random national sampling of 1,478 adults residing in cities, towns and villages. The margin of error for the poll was 2.5 percentage points, with a confidence level of 95 percent.

Published on Today's Zaman, 30 May 2011, Monday